Preseason Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#223
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 14.6% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 51.2% 74.2% 47.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 75.4% 57.9%
Conference Champion 9.7% 16.2% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 2.3% 6.4%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round8.2% 14.4% 7.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 15.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 49 - 412 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 102   @ UNLV L 65-76 15%    
  Dec 02, 2020 138   @ Pacific L 63-71 24%    
  Dec 18, 2020 129   @ Washington St. L 70-78 23%    
  Dec 22, 2020 263   @ Portland L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 31, 2020 192   Southern Utah W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 02, 2021 192   Southern Utah W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 07, 2021 166   @ Northern Colorado L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 09, 2021 166   @ Northern Colorado L 64-70 31%    
  Jan 14, 2021 252   Portland St. W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 16, 2021 252   Portland St. W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 21, 2021 266   @ Northern Arizona L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 23, 2021 266   @ Northern Arizona L 69-70 51%    
  Jan 28, 2021 140   @ Montana L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 30, 2021 140   Montana L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 04, 2021 256   @ Weber St. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 06, 2021 256   @ Weber St. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 11, 2021 132   Eastern Washington L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 13, 2021 132   Eastern Washington L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 18, 2021 299   Idaho St. W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 20, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 25, 2021 322   @ Idaho W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 27, 2021 322   @ Idaho W 73-68 65%    
  Mar 04, 2021 230   Sacramento St. W 66-62 64%    
  Mar 06, 2021 230   Sacramento St. W 66-62 64%    
Projected Record 12 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.9 3.0 1.1 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.0 1.5 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.6 1.0 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.1 5.2 7.2 8.1 9.6 10.2 9.4 10.1 8.0 7.9 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.2% 1.4    1.3 0.1
17-3 87.1% 2.5    1.9 0.6 0.0
16-4 57.2% 2.4    1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.6% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 6.1 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 100.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
18-2 1.4% 96.0% 94.8% 1.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 24.0%
17-3 2.9% 81.4% 81.4% 14.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.5
16-4 4.2% 48.5% 48.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 2.1
15-5 5.8% 21.6% 21.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 4.6
14-6 7.9% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.4
13-7 8.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
12-8 10.1% 10.1
11-9 9.4% 9.4
10-10 10.2% 10.2
9-11 9.6% 9.6
8-12 8.1% 8.1
7-13 7.2% 7.2
6-14 5.2% 5.2
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.7 1.5 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%